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1994-05-02
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4KB
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92 lines
<text>
<title>
Scotland United Kingdom: World Trade Outlook
</title>
<article>
<hdr>
World Trade Outlook 1992: United Kingdom
U.S. Exports Are Expected To Grow Modestly This Year
</hdr>
<body>
<p>By Robert McLaughlin
</p>
<p>U.S. exports to the United Kingdom in 1991 fell for the first
time since 1985 as the U.K. recession curbed demand for
imports. From a record level of $23.5 billion set in 1990, U.S.
exports dropped 6.1 percent last year to a still impressive
$22.1 billion. This year, U.S. exports are likely to rebound and
show modest growth, if the economic recovery projected for the
United Kingdom makes a timely appearance.
</p>
<p>U.S. exports 1991--$22.1 billion U.S. imports 1991--$18.5
billion
</p>
<p> Despite the drop in its imports from the United States, the
United Kingdom remains the largest European and fourth largest
worldwide market for U.S exports. Among the 40 U.K. markets
with the greatest potential for U.S. exporters, according to the
U.S. and Foreign Commercial Service (US&FCS) staff in the U.S.
Embassy in London, are computer hardware, software, and
services, air and water pollution control equipment, medical
equipment, biotechnology, telecommunications, and security
equipment.
</p>
<p> Approximately 18 percent of all U.S. exports to Europe and
21 percent of all U.S. exports to the European Community (EC)
went to the United Kingdom last year. U.S. exporters managed to
increase their share of the U.K. import market to 11.5 percent,
but failed to dislodge West Germany (15 percent) from the top
position.
</p>
<p> The leading items in U.S. total exports to the United Kingdom
last year were aircraft ($3.1 billion), computers and office
equipment ($3 billion), electronic components ($934 million),
non-electric motors ($889 million), analytical and scientific
instruments ($743 million), and telecommunications equipment
($548 million).
</p>
<p> According to private sector forecasts, the U.K. economy will
show real GDP growth of around 1.5 percent this year. These
forecasts reflect concerns with lingering evidence of economic
weakness, perhaps most sharply demonstrated by the downturn in
the manufacturing sector and rising unemployment.
</p>
<p> From mid-1990 to the end of last year, output of both
investment goods and intermediate goods fell roughly by 10
percent. After dipping to 5.5 percent of the labor force in
mid-1990, unemployment has been rising ever since and reached
9 percent last December. This year, the jobless rate is expected
to average 9.5 percent.
</p>
<p> The recession was triggered by the government's tight
monetary policy instituted to curb inflation, and the success
of this policy will set the stage for economic recovery. High
interest rates (10.5 percent) remain in place and retail price
inflation has been cut from 9.5 percent in 1990 to 4.5 percent
last December. Real deflation occurred in January 1992 and
every measure of retail prices dropped. Still, growth of wages
(7.5 percent) exceeds retail price growth, and overall
productivity has declined in five of the past six years.
</p>
<p> High interest rates cooled the rapid growth of demand for
imported goods that occurred from 1983 through mid-1989. U.K.
imports peaked in the third quarter of 1989 and then began to
retreat. The consensus is for total imports to rise by only 5
percent over the 1991 level. The U.K.'s current-account deficit
will show another decline this year. The deficit, up from $7
billion in 1987 to nearly $34 billion last year, is expected to
drop to $25 billion in 1992.
</p>
<p> To help new exporters get established in the U.K. market, the
U.S. Department of Commerce will host a number of trade
promotion events. Specific events include those for franchising,
computers, sporting goods, healthcare, and aerospace. For
details on these events and specific U.K. markets, call the U.K.
Desk Officer at (202) 482-3748.
</p>
<p>Source: International Trade Administration, Business America Magazine
</p>
</body>
</article>
</text>